Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Appendix A – An approach to estimating how many descended from these families

We don’t know yet what average number of children were born and survived to reproduce through the generations, but just for fun, here’s how to make a wild guess at how many people might now be living who descended from 24 couples living in 1820, 16 couples (G7) and 8 couples (G6).  Estimates for now living include our generation (G1), our children’s generation (G2+) and our grandchildren’s generation (G3+).

Wild Guess at Minimum
Wild Guess at Maximum
Average of the two
# children
Couples
# children
Couples
# children
Couples
G7

16

16

16
G6

8

8

8
G6
4
64
6
96
5
80
G5
4
288
6
624
5
440
G4
4
1,152
6
3,744
5
2,200
G3
4
4,608
6
22,464
5
11,000
G2
3
13,824
4
89,856
3.5
38,500
G1
3
41,472
3
269,568
3
115,500
G2+
3
124,416
3
808,704
3
346,500
G3+
2
248,832
2
1,617,408
2
693,000
Now living
414,720
Now living
2,695,680
Now living
1,155,000

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